bellwether counties epoch times

bellwether counties epoch times

They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Required fields are marked *. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. Were a service industry-oriented area. Their fear is real, mine is. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Im not happy with either party. Pre-performance Lobby events. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. That is a very good thing to have. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. I think he is more for giving to the people.. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Medicare is becoming a joke. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. I dont think you should take that away from me.. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. He loves this country. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Theres significant variability among them, though. This is a high farming community.. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. It was easy. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Blaine County. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. To accept cookies, click continue. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Port Clinton, Ohio. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. . It will cycle through. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. This includes personalizing content and advertising. But according to the. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Right now, its horrible. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. I think all politicians are crooks. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. I dont listen to the news. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Its just stupid, she said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. The morale of the people up there is bad. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. About The Author. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. Its gone, Jacobs said. Youre not getting anybody perfect. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Vance. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Im not even sure what direction were going.. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . This claim is basically absurd. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election.

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